February 01, 2011

Media seems to think Mubarak will fade away quietly - confirmed

In 2006 cables from wikileaks, Oman Soliman a U.S. diplomatic cable described Suleiman as “formidable” and says he is Mubarak’s “consigliere” on foreign policy. Mubarak made his consigliere number two in his regime and told his consigliere to open talks (make offers to the opposition).

So now -
Mubarak’s Top Spy Rejected by Cairo Streets as Masses March.

So at least some of offers (as per Godfather analogy- 'offer he can't refuse') have been refused.

UPDATE- Mubarak has announced that he will leave over the next few months

He said that over the next few months, "the remaining of my current reign, I will work very hard to carry out all the necessary measures to transfer power."

The drama continues:
Demonstrators what Mubarak to step down immediately and for a national unity caretaker government to fill in. They feel that this is a trick and a stalling tactic and that the current regime will fix the election as they have past elections

The key offers were for the behind the scenes military support. Not firing on the crowds may not be a sign of weakness for Mubarak or an indication of rift between the military and Mubarak.

Mubarak will be making an address soon. Mubarak may make an offer of not running in the September elections.

In a few minutes, according to Al Arabiya, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will speak and offer a "solution" to his country's unrest -- perhaps by agreeing not to run in this September's upcoming presidential election. Such an announcement would be an epic moment for the Middle East, and for Mubarak, who once said he would serve as Egypt's president "until my last breath."

Al Arabiya TV reported that Egypt's embattled president will address protesters on Tuesday to tell them he intends to stay in office until next elections to enforce reforms.

ElBaradei said on Tuesday Mubarak must leave Egypt before the reformist opposition would start talks with the government on the future of the Arab world's most populous nation.

"There can be dialogue but it has to come after the demands of the people are met and the first of those is that President Mubarak leaves," he told Al Arabiya television.

While the embattled president has said that he would press reforms through with the new government, he has made it clear that he has no intention of leaving office.

Mubarak's only support has come from Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia

Prof. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S. policy from Bar Ilan University, urged Israel to rethink its dependence on Washington, despite widespread support for Israel in the U.S. Congress and positive public opinion ratings.

Gilboa accused President Obama of having “stabbed Mubarak in the back” and warned America’s policy reversal on Egypt means Obama could “turn his back” on Israel.

He urged the Israeli government to focus more on strengthening Israel’s ties to developing powers like India, with whom Israel enjoys military cooperation, and China, and even Europe. Eitan Haber, adviser and speechwriter for late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin, also wrote in Yediot Ahronot, Israel’s most popular Hebrew daily, that Obama’s abrupt abandonment of its long-standing friend on the Nile raised profound doubts about American reliability in a political crunch with Israel.

This could result in US influence in the Middle east nearly evaporating with less influence over Israel and none with whatever emerges from Egypt.

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