Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium "civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years" and "the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable". Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar
1. World Uranium production (I won in 2010, 2011)
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018 (I won in 2010, lost 2009 and 2011)
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan (I won 2010, 2011)
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons 19,450 tons in 2011
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 55,400 tons estimate 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
The world nuclear generation bet is likely to be won by Dittmar due to Japan and Germany turning off operational reactors because of public fears after Fukushima. Other nuclear generating nations actually did quite well, so the actual miss on generation will not be that large.
Japan is talking about turning on some of their reactors again and will have power shortages this summer if they do not.
There are about 14 nuclear reactors getting started in 2012.
14 more nuclear reactors starting in 2013 and 19 nuclear reactors in 2014
I am expecting some of Japans reactors to get restarted in 2012 and most of the operating reactors to restart in 2013.
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