May 02, 2013

Electricity, lighting, clean cooking and heating, smartphones, electrified transportation for the bottom 1 to 3 billion is possible in 10-20 years

The IEA projects that under business as usual close to 1 billion people will still be without access to electricity and 2.6 billion people will still lack access to clean cooking facilities in 2030.

The IEA estimates that total investment of nearly $1 trillion ($979 billion) would be required to achieve universal energy access by 2030, an average of $49 billion per year (from 2011 to 2030). I think universal energy access and more can be done for a lot lower cost and it can be done faster.

However, solar power has become cheaper than diesel in developing countries.

There are now LED lights for $10-27 each with lumens 5-30 lumens of light.

Technological improvements in

* lowering the cost of LED lights
* lowering the cost of solar power
* increasing the brightness of LED lights
* increasing the power from solar power
* increasing the production of portable solar and LED lights

By 2017-2020, the $5-20 per person could provide lighting and electrical charging and basic electrical needs for every person in the world.

$30 billion to provide $20 of LED lighting and solar power to the 1.5 billion who would not have basic electrification through other means.

Fairly full featured smartphones cost under $100 in China now. By 2017, a $20 smartphone will be more capable that that $100 phone now.

It would be about $60 billion would provide LED lighting, 50 watts of solar power, and smartphones for the people in world without electricity now. Those people are spending about $36 billion per year on kerosene.

Having light, solar power and smartphones will accelerate the rise out of poverty for these people.

Basic batteries and better bicycles (ideally electric bikes) could be developed at $100 per person.

If they can get electricity up to 100 watts then it would be very easy to have boiled and safe water.

Having electricity, lighting and communication would make it easier to deliver medical care. Vaccines are easily distributed with available refrigeration.

Brookings institute indicated the 2015 the extreme poverty should be down to 10% or less of the world's population. Down from 47 per cent in 1990 and 24 percent in 2008. It seems that a goal of getting extreme poverty down below 5% is possible by the end of 2023. This would leave about 350 million people living with less than $1.25/day mainly in Africa.

Continue progress on Child survival

The number of under-five deaths worldwide fell from more than 12.0 million in 1990 to 7.6 million in 2010. The goal should be to bring under five deaths worldwide below 1 million by the end of 2023.

Illiteracy a big problem for rapid progress against $2/day poverty - Near Poverty Target

It is also conceivable to have less than 1 billion living on less than $2/day in 2020 (near poverty target). However, this is a tougher area to make a lot of progress. The reason being is that there are high levels of illiteracy in India and Africa. Someone who is 15 or over now and is illiterate will be 25 or older in 2020 and will be illiterate. India likely has 30-40% illiteracy. Some who are considered literate only have to be able to write their name. This is not true literacy.

Bring the global middle class at $10/day PPP could double from 2 billion to 4 billion by 2025

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